Back to top

Image: Bigstock

What's in Store for Packaging Corp (PKG) in Q1 Earnings?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Packaging Corporation (PKG - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 22, after the closing bell.

Q4 Results

In the last reported quarter, Packaging Corp’s revenues and earnings fell on a year-over-year basis. However, the top and bottom lines surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

PKG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 10.1%, on average.

Packaging Corporation of America Price and EPS Surprise

 

Packaging Corporation of America Price and EPS Surprise

Packaging Corporation of America price-eps-surprise | Packaging Corporation of America Quote

Q1 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Packaging Corp’s first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $1.64, suggesting a decline of 23.5% from the prior-year quarter’s reported level. Estimates have moved north by 1% in the past 60 days.

The consensus estimate for total sales is pegged at $1.91 billion, indicating a 3.3% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Factors at Play

Packaging Corp’s first-quarter results are expected to reflect the impacts of lower prices in the Packaging segment. This is primarily due to the recent decrease in the published benchmark index grades being realized throughout the third and fourth quarters. However, this will be partially offset by the implementation of PKG's stated January price hikes. Price and mix impacts are expected to be a favorable 0.1% in the quarter, per our model.

Packaging Corp’s first-quarter results are also expected to reflect the impacts of the weakness in packaging demand. Our model predicts the Packaging segment’s volume to decrease 3.7% year over year in the quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.74 billion, suggesting a decline of 3.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. The consensus mark for the segment’s operating income is pegged at $199.5 million, indicating a fall of 25.6% from the prior-year reported figure.

In the Paper segment, volume is likely to be lower, and prices and mix are expected to have trended down with declines in the index prices. We expect volume to fall 4.4% year over year. We anticipate a positive pricing/mix impact of 0.4% for the first quarter. Higher operating costs, primarily labor and benefit expenses, and increased energy costs are expected to have hurt the segment’s profits in the quarter under review.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Paper segment’s revenues is pegged at $145 million for the March-end quarter, suggesting a fall of 4% from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus estimate for the segment’s operating income is $22 million, indicating a 35.2% fall from the prior-year quarter.

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Packaging Corp this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here, as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP:  PKG has an Earnings ESP of +3.66%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Price Performance

Over the past year, shares of Packaging Corp have gained 29.8% compared with the industry’s 2.9% growth.

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Crane Company (CR - Free Report) is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2024 results on Apr 22. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.28% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CR’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.12 per share. It has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 25.1%.

Eaton Corporation plc (ETN - Free Report) , expected to release earnings soon, has an Earnings ESP of +2.05%.

The consensus estimate for Eaton’s earnings for the first quarter of 2024 is pegged at $2.28 per share. ETN currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2. It has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 4.5%

Deere & Company (DE - Free Report) , expected to release earnings results soon, has an Earnings ESP of +0.76% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deere’s second-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings is pegged at $7.82 per share. It has a trailing four-quarter average surprise of 17.1%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Published in